At a recent virtual media event with African journalists, Akinwale Goodluck, Africa director of the GSMA, said 5G was on its way to the continent.
"In Sub-Saharan Africa, 5G is inevitable for us, but it is not imminent," Mr. Goodluck said. "5G will be a major driver of the economy and can drive efficiency in many complex operations, but for us in the SSA region, we still have a lot of work to do before we roll out 5G."
He still believes that 5G will eventually be a "big changer" for people around the world and those living in SSA. "Historically, Africa has done very well in terms of leapfrogging," he said. "5G won't make any difference. But clearly, our 4G pipeline is still relatively empty, penetration is still below 10%, and we still have a lot of work to do on 4G deployment. "
According to the GSMA, which represents about 750 mobile operators around the world, mobile Internet users in SSA accounted for just 23% of its population in 2018. By 2025, GSAM predicts, that proportion will rise to 39%. It also predicts that smartphones will make up 66% of all connections in the SSA region by 2025.
In the SSA region, the bottom line is that 28 million devices will be connected to 5G networks by 2025, or 2.7% of the total connections in the region, Goodluck explained. When it comes to 4G penetration and the%age of total connections, he says there is still plenty of room for growth, with the average penetration rate in the region only around 7% (although in some countries, such as South Africa, penetration is more than 20%).
He says much more needs to be done to address the challenges and barriers to Internet adoption. He stressed that by the end of 2019, 3G connections in the region will exceed 2G for the first time. According to the GSMA, 4G connections will also exceed 2G connections by 2023, while 5G will be slowly added from 2020 and may account for only 3% of total SSA connections by 2025.
"What's interesting is that we're seeing more 4G deployments in SSA regions, and recently we've seen many governments in SSA redesigning their broadband plans to move from 2G to 4G, rather than from 2G to 3G," he said.
When it comes to 5G, Goodluck said electricity remains a major challenge: "5G is not running on generators; you have to have real power."
"We have a lot of work to do to raise awareness and alleviate some of the anxieties that have been generated around 5G recently." He alluded to the recently unfounded conspiracy theory that covid-19 was caused by 5G.
Goodluck believes that when 5G first enters Africa, it will be aimed more at the corporate market than the retail consumer market.
Ultimately, Goodluck said, African governments need to "actively promote the deployment and adoption of 4G" first, and as the market becomes more complex, demand will help governments develop the right policies to support 5G.
