In 2020, the world experienced a global pandemic that led to a global recession. It is unclear how long the COVID-19 epidemic will continue to spread, or how quickly the global economy will recover after the massive shutdown of the first half of this year. In past macroeconomic downturns, the optical transmission market has shrunk. But in this recession, demand for optical transmission will grow as more people turn to distance learning and work.
We believe that the fundamental driver of the optical market -- bandwidth -- is still there, and that the recent pandemic has magnified its value. As a result, the market research firm predicts that the optical transmission market, which consists mainly of DWDM systems, will expand by 2020 and be close to $18 billion over the next five years. However, near-term challenges in the supply, distribution and deployment of the market remain.
DWDM market will quickly move towards 800Gbps line CARDS
The first 800Gbps line CARDS will be shipped in early 2020. Sales of 800Gbps line CARDS are expected to rise this year as more manufacturers launch their products, and by 2024, 800Gbps line CARDS will account for nearly 30 percent of wavelength shipments. More than half of these CARDS are expected to be used at a speed of 400Gbps.
It is predicted that the wavelength velocity will reach 1,200 GBPS (1.2Tbps) after 800Gbps. Based on the introduction of the previous generations of relevant DSPS and the shipping date of the first line CARDS, it is predicted that the 1.2Tbps line CARDS will be on the market in 2023-2024 (but more likely in 2024).
Other market trends
1. The demand for optical transmission equipment for data center Interconnection (DCI) application is expected to change in the near future.
2. Decomposed WDM repeater is a bright spot of growth, which will grow at a double-digit rate every year.
3. 400ZR will slow down the growth of the market.
